O Karpinska - University of applied sciences schmalkalden germany master of arts in international business and economics - страница 1
інформаційні технології та безпека в соціально-економічних системах
UDK 339.9: 620.9
UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES SCHMALKALDEN, GERMANY, MASTER OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY FOR THE STATE ECONOMY AND
INCREASED ENERGY AUTONOMY
The paper describes Photovoltaic technology industry and its economic implications in terms of investment, employment and contribution to the state energy autonomy.
Key words: Photovoltaic (PV) technology, PV installed capacities, portfolio theory for energy planning, hedge against price volatility.
Energy is a decisive factor for economic and social development. More precisely, economic development of the country is dependent on access to sufficient quality and quantity of energy at acceptable prices. However, energy production involving traditional fossil fuels leads to environmental degradation, which has irreversible detrimental effects for the whole human population. Moreover, fossil fuel sources are concentrated in just a few regions of the world's oil, gas, coal and uranium abundance. These resources are often located in areas politically instable. This situation is more often the cause of energy shortages for many states and uncontrolled growth of energy prices.
Photovoltaic (PV) technology, which is based on the electricity generation from the sunlight, is considered to be the most environmentally friendly electricity generation technology. In the framework of this article, it will be investigated what are the economic implications of PV technology and how PV could contribute to the increased state energy autonomy.
PV technology is highly advantageous regarding the positive environmental impact, as well as owing to its modular design, PV system can produce energy for the needs of small facilities or households, commercial, public buildings, or even it could be sold to the central electricity grid.
Still, PV technology remains to be not cost competitive with traditional energy sources. In comparison to the electricity generated by traditional fossil fuels, or nuclear power, PV electricity generation cost per kWh is times more expensive - 20 - 40 $ cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) from PV compared to 3-5 cents/kWh from traditional fossil fuel sources .
However, a considerable past PV cost reduction should be outlined. For instance, PV module costs have fallen remarkably - from 70$ per Wp in 1976 to just 3.5$ per Wp at the
beginning of 2000 .
Other positive developments within PV industry should be given attention, as well. By the end of 2010 global PV installed capacities reached 37 GW. This amount represents a remarkable achievement, since only at the end of 2009 it was established at the level of 22 - 23 GW .
Assessing historical progression of PV deployment, since 1998 annual PV installed capacities has been growing impressively at approximately 35% rate. In 2000 the world PV market accounted for only 1, 2 GW of installed capacities. In 2006 this amount reached already 6, 500 MW and the PV market value constituted 9 billion Euros. The competition on the solar electric market greatly intensified on account of new companies entering the market .
With regard to the annual installation capacities, in 2008 the greatest contributors to PV market growth were Spain (2.7 GW), Germany (1.5 GW) and US (0.34 GW) . With regard to the cumulative installed capacities, countries leading solar electricity market in 2008 were Germany (5.3 GW), Spain (3.4 GW), Japan (2.1 GW), and US (1.1 GW)
In 2009 irrespective financial crisis PV market grew by 15% in relation to the preceding year. The global cumulative installed capacity remarkably reached according to different estimates 22-23 GW. This also implies a 45% increase in terms of global cumulative installed additions.
The leading PV markets in the world in 2009 in terms of installed capacities were European countries with 16 GW (9.7GW alone in Germany), Japan with 2.6 GW and US with 1.6 GW .
Global capital investments in solar industry during the period of 2000-2004 were growing at 85% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Total annual investment in 2000 constituted $66, in 2001 - $144, 2002 - $110, 2003 - $ 417 million. Starting from 2004 solar industry experienced an astonishing expansion, owing to the introduction of generous incentive systems in Germany and Japan .
PV industry accounts for the largest share of the global Cleantech investments. In 2007 global capital investments in the solar industry constituted $12.4 billion and it has been predicted by the European Photovoltaic Association (EPIA) and Greenpeace International that by 2020 global PV investment could attract $ 79 billion [3, 8].
The investment in PV technology generates thousands of new job places. In 2009 according to the Clean Edge, Inc., PV technology accounted for around 270 thousand of direct and indirect jobs, which demonstrates a remarkable achievement . Countries which accounted for the greatest share in terms of employment creation were previously mentioned leading PV countries, such as EU countries, USA and Japan.
Comparing jobs per unit of electricity output, it has been concluded, that PV sector is the most labour intensive among the other renewable energy industries, as well as 6 to 10 times more labour intensive than still dominant fossil fuel sector .
Achieving a high level of employment is one of major goals of macroeconomic policy, since the number of employed substantially affects the macroeconomic balance and economic growth. The increased employment will increase income, expenditures and thus contribute to the GDP growth of the country.
Another major implication PV deployment may imply is concerned about increased energy autonomy of the country. Energy autonomy of the country which is reliable on fossil fuels imports in gaining in importance nowadays due to increasing energy demand , which may raise energy prices as well as increasing monopoly on power felt by the global economy.
According to "Renewable Energy as a Hedge against Fuel Price Fluctuation" by Dan Lieberman and Siobhan Doherty from the Center for Resource Solutions for the Secretariat of the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) renewable emerging technologies, such a s wind, small hydro, geothermal, as well as solar technology could function as "hedge" against risky price volatility of fossil fuels. This function could be fulfilled in the following way - firstly, the cost of energy generated by PV technology can be predictable and is constantly falling down, and secondly, the increase of share of PV sources, as well as other renewables in energy generation portfolio of the country would reduce the demand for traditional energy sources, and thus could positively affect their price level .
Oil prices could be characterized by high volatility as could be witnessed in the past. The major oil crises were 1973 Arab countries oil embargo, 1978-1980 revolution in Iran and Iran-Iraq war, 1990 invasion of Kuwait and oil crises of 2000s due to Venezuelan Unrest, Second Persian Gulf War in 2003 and increasing oil demand accompanied with decreasing supply in 2008 that resulted in the sharp increase of oil prices . In contrast, coal is the cheapest source of energy and historically could be characterized with the most stable prices in contrast to other traditional energy sources. However in 2008 coal market witnessed sharp price increases for coal by 40% to 60% on the spot market due to rising energy demand, supply constraints and speculations .
Fossil fuel price volatility negatively affects the economy of the country. The gas an oil price increases during the 1970s negatively affected global economy, by causing inflation and slowing down economic growth. "The oil-GDP effect" was formulated by Hamilton in 1983 in his research on effects of oil shocks on U.S. economy . According to Hamilton the increase in oil prices causes the decrease of GDP. Expensive energy increases production costs, reduces real demand and worsens the trade balance. Higher production costs also results in higher inflation. The central banks of industrialized countries try to counteract the dynamics of higher prices by raising interest rates. That implies the tightening of monetary policy, which limits the growth of GDP. Slower economic growth in industrialized countries causes their imports to fall, and consequently worsens the situation of developing countries that provide the raw materials, food and finished products . Also increasing fossil fuel prices negatively affect electricity prices.
Fossil fuels prices are demonstrating upward trend, are volatile and hardly predictable in the future. On the other hand, renewables are demonstrating downward trend, and are predictable. Thus renewable energy sources, including PV could work as "hedge" against the risk of volatile prices of fossil fuels. Shimon Awerbuch and Martin Berger in their study "Applying Portfolio Theory to EU electricity planning and policy-making" concluded that it can be less costly to hold diversified energy portfolio consisting of energy sources with different financial characteristics, than holding portfolio consisting of only fossil fuels. The authors suggest that mean-variance portfolio analysis should be considered for the creation of energy mix with the aim of minimizing risks under different economic outcomes. They suggest that more costly, but more stable renewables should be included in the electricity generating mix, so that the efficient portfolios are created .
Today it can be concluded that the EU suffers from a structural weakness of the energy sector. Production of energy by EU countries covers only half of its needs and if this situation doesn't change, then in some 20-30 years the 70 percept of demand for energy in the EU countries will be covered by imports. The attention to this issue was brought by the adopted Commission Green Paper of 8 March 2006: "European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy". Projections for the EU present energy situation suggest that the European economy in the coming years could increasingly feel the lack of stability on the energy market. Recognizing this problem the European countries are increasingly concerned about its energy future .
It could be suggested that the alternative solution to energy problems could be atomic energy. However, tragic experience of Japan of this year, 2011 shows that nuclear energy contains enormous risks and problems. Finding a cure for all these problems in the nuclear energy is simply not possible. It is also not possible to exclude human error, as was in the case of Chornobyl accident. The consequences for the future generations could be unpredictable.
An example of environmentally conscious and reasonable measures could be found in Germany. In 2002 the "Act on the structured phase-out of the utilization of nuclear energy for the commercial generation of electricity" entered into force. The target of this document is to phase-out the use of nuclear energy. According to it, no licenses would be given for the construction and operation of new power plants and the operating period of power plant cannot exceed 32 years
Report of the United Nations and the World Energy Council suggests that one of the alternatives to the further development of the power of the industrialized countries is the usage of renewable sources and development of new technologies. In the long run the different sources of renewable energy and modern technologies can provide significant amounts of energy in a safe way, at affordable prices and with close to zero emissions .
Rational use of energy from renewable sources of energy such as rivers, wind, solar energy or biomass, is one of the essential components of sustainable development of the country that brings tangible ecological and energy benefits. The increase of the share of renewable energy in the energy portfolio contributes to improved efficiency in usage and saving of energy sources, improvement of the environment via reduction of harmful emissions into the atmosphere and
Renewable energy sources including Photovoltaic technology remain still expensive. Yet, in the face of growing world energy demand due to the rapid development of newly industrialized countries and resulting uncertainty around fossil fuels price volatility, as well as due to environmental degradation caused by the usage of traditional fossil fuels, the increase of share of renewable energy sources, and PV in particular in the country's energy mix should be considered.
Additionally, PV technology cost reduction development showed a dramatic decrease over the past years and this downward trend is likely to continue in the future. Also, in countries where the traditional sources electricity price is established at the level more than 20 $ cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) for residential households PV technology extension could be justified.
Another argument in favour of PV technology is its positive effects in terms of investment attraction and employment creation, which could be witnessed in the leading PV countries.
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Надійшла в редколегію 27.06.2011
Степанова О.М., Дубовіков Є.Ю.
Східноукраїнський національний університет ім. В. Даля, м. Луганськ
оцінка сукупної вартості володіння іт на основі моделі сервісів
Запропоновано спосіб побудови моделі сервісів та оцінки сукупної вартості володіння ІТ на основі даної моделі.
Сьогодні необхідність використання інформаційних систем (ІС) та інформаційних технологій (ІТ) в управлінні підприємством вже не викликає сумнівів. Корпоративні інформаційні системи стають невід'ємною частиною системи управління підприємством в умовах українських реалій.
Впровадження і наступна експлуатація сучасних інформаційних систем найчастіше пов'язані зі значними інвестиціями і, відповідно, з необхідністю обґрунтування ефективності цих інвестицій. З іншого боку, щоб планувати ІТ-бюджет на основі реальних комерційних показників, потрібно чітко уявляти собі статті витрат і фактори, які їх формують. Тому, як ніколи гостро, стоїть питання про оцінку вартості впровадження інформаційних систем та подальших витрат, пов'язаних з їх супроводом.
Аналіз останніх досягнень і публікацій
В економічній оцінці інформаційних проектів використовуються як традиційні, так і нові фінансові моделі [3, 4]. Концепція сукупної вартості володіння (СВВ) інформаційними технологіями (англ.: ТСО - Total Cost of Ownership) була висунута компанією Gartner Group в кінці 80-х років. Під сукупною вартістю володіння розуміють добуток прямих і непрямих витрат, які несе власник інформаційної системи за період її життєвого циклу. Основна перевага моделі СВВ у порівнянні з попередніми методиками обліку полягає у виявленні та аналізі прихованих витрат .
В аналізі СВВ історично як об'єкт витрат прийнята інформаційна система. У рамках
Вісник Східноукраїнського національного університету ім. В. Даля, №7 (161), 2011, Ч. 1.