B I Las - The public administration of exogenous and endogenous risks of regional development in post-crisis period - страница 34

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233. Crisis today, catastrophe tomorrow

257. The Cabinet supported Gaydarski

266. Minister Gaydarski grants approval for hospital privatizations

268. How hospitals are bought in the EU?

269. Three more days for changing the family physician

273. The NHIF discontinues a contract for made-up manipulations

274. Many in need, few psychologists

276. The NHIF pay for prophylactic as well 281. Fines for the medical scandal in Ruse 290. Nurses are among the poorly paid 293. Eight hospitals with new boards of directors

295. A rare liver transplantation performed in Military Medical Academy

298. Hospital bankruptcies begin

299. First kidney transplantation to a child in Bulgaria 300. Limits for public health stations dropped

A third iteration was made in order to verify the situation, described after the second iteration and was carried out through 200 publications from 2009. Significant part of the problems associated with health workforce, remains unresolved, regardless of the political will demonstrated after the parliamentary elections in 2009. Table 6 present possibilities to get correct information and answer on Questions

10x10.

Table 6

Matrix "10x10" Questions - 2009

^   ---.Question number Question groups

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1. Number and structure of health workforce

npa

npa pd

npa

pd

pd

pd

npa pd

pd

nd

pd

2. Age and gender structure

npa

nd

nd

pd

nd

nd

pd

pd

nd

nd

3. Educational potential

mpa

mpa

pd

pd

pd

nd

pd

pd

mpa

nd

4. Labour regulations

pd

mpa

pd

npa

pd

pd

npa

pd

pd

pd

5. Code of ethics

pd

mpa

npa

mpa

mpa

pd

pd

pd

pd

pd

6. National health map

mpa

mpa

pd

mpa

mpa

pd

pd

pd

pd

pd

7. Migration

cd

npa

pd

npa

mpa

mpa

pd

pd

mpa

pd

8. Salaries and material incentives

cd

mpa

pd

cd

cd

mpa

mpa

mpa

pd

pd

9. Trade unions/ professional and non­governmental organizations

mpa

pd

mpa

mpa

pd

mpa

npa

npa

pd

mpa

10. International cooperation

mpa

mpa

mpa

pd

pd

pd

pd

pd

pd

pd

npa - no precise answer; mpa - more precise answer; pd - partial data; cd - correct data; nd - no data

Studying media space on the basis of publications in non-specialized daily press confirms the thesis for non-equilibrium, related to human resources for the health system in Bulgaria. The over-departmental character of problems or the necessity for integrating efforts of a great number of problems to solve them is outlined.

This study confirmed the existence of disparities in healthcare system in terms of human resources and the need for interaction in order to get out of this crisis.

РЕЗЮМЕ

Вивчення стану трудових ресурсів охорони здоров'я, спрямованих на формулювання проблеми й пошук рішень, заснованих на різних інформаційних ресурсах.

Ключові слова: працівники сфери охорони здоров'я, неспеціалізовані щоденні видання, анкети РЕЗЮМЕ

Изучение состояния трудовых ресурсов здравоохранения, направленных на формулировку проблемы и поиск решений, основанных на различных информационных ресурсах.

Ключевые слова: работники сферыздравоохранения, неспециализированные ежедневные издания, анкеты

SUMMARY

The study of the state of workforce health aiming to formulate the problems and search for solutions is based on various information resources.

Keywords: workforce health, non-specialized daily publications, questionnaire

GLOBAL EDUCATION ISSUES AND NEW SKILLS FOR LABOUR MARKET

Moscardini Alfredo, Prof. University of Sunderland, UK Vlasova Tatyana, Dr. Donetsk National University, Ukraine

It is difficult to predict precisely what the future will hold, but everyone has to prepare and plan in order to avoid undesirable outcomes and to make the most of the opportunities they encounter. The sum of these individual plans and choices will influence the future path taken by Europe as a whole. These plans and choices need to be guided by robust labour market information, including a prospective element. The key question therefore is not whether an attempt should be made to anticipate the future, but rather how to go about it. Rather than relying on luck, or upon individuals' own (possibly ill-informed) judgments, those involved in producing projections argue that there is a case for the State providing such information as a public good, based on the application of transparent, systematic and scientific methods.

Rationale

The essential rationale for forecasting and the basis for the public sector funding of forecasting and the associated data collection is that labour markets are imperfect and that there are long and variable lags between decisions on investment in skills and when these are finally available. Without such information there are likely to be more or greater mismatches in labour supply and demand. This is likely to be reflected in a combination of wage inflation, unemployment, unfilled vacancies and associated inefficiencies. Hence, by funding data collection and forecasting work the public sector is providing a public good available to public and private sector actors to help inform decisions to invest in improving human capital.

Identification of labour skills needs: main concepts, strengths and weaknesses

The assessment and anticipation of skills and labour market needs is seen as a key instrument: for the efficient functioning of labour markets and the mobility of labour within the EU; for a better match between labour supply and demand to reduce bottlenecks; and for a better definition of the content and structure of education and training systems as they seek to develop human resources, skills levels, creativity and entrepreneurship. Many Member States currently carry out such activities, but until recently little has been done at pan-

© Moscardini Alfredo, Vlasova Tatyana, 2О11

European level. Given the increasing interdependency of European labour markets and the growth in cross-border mobility, the case for a pan-European assessment has strengthened.

While this approach is important for policy (especially in education and training provision), it has an equally important role in providing robust information for individual citizens and organisations. In a rapidly changing economic and social environment, policy­makers, practitioners and citizens have to be able to identify and respond promptly to new skill needs. Such decisions should depend on reliable information provided by research.

There is a long tradition of forecasting skills needs in Europe. Recently, the terms 'labour market assessment', 'anticipation' and 'early identification of skills needs' have become popular. These terms are used as umbrella concepts for the various tools and studies to better anticipate skills needs.

There is now a vast range of different tools and techniques for anticipating changing skill needs. The main general approaches

include:

i. Formal, national-level, quantitative, model-based projections;

ii. Surveys of employers or other groups (these approaches may include some quantitative aspects but are generally more qualitative);

iii. Ad hoc sectoral or occupational studies (involving both quantitative and qualitative methods), focusing on the situation in particular areas (which may involve elements of both i and ii.

iv. Foresight analysis using scenario development exercises based on expert opinion (including setting up 'observatories', focus groups, round tables and other Delphi-style methods, to reach a consensus view) [1]

Each approach has its strengths and weaknesses (see Table 1). Ideally, a variety of different methods should be used, allowing them to inform and support each other, rather than seeing them as mutually exclusive or competing alternatives. No single approach has the monopoly on 'truth' nor can a single method provide a full and complete picture: both qualitative and quantitative assessments are needed. All such projections should be seen as part of an ongoing process rather than the final outcome. Together they can provide the various participants in the labour market, as well as policy makers, with useful insights into how labour markets are developing in response to various external influences.

It is also important to emphasise that the different approaches may be suited to different audiences and purposes. Scenario development, for example, is ideal when the aim is to involve participants and to explore alternative possible futures. The actual process of carrying out the scenario development is often a critical output, and participation is necessary to gain the full benefits. This is ideal for situations involving small numbers of policy makers trying to explore the threats and opportunities they are facing. In contrast, detailed quantitative projections may be ideal where the prime aim is to provide useful labour market information and intelligence to support large numbers of individuals making choices.

Table 1

_Comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of alternative approaches to anticipating skill requirements_

Alternative Approaches__Advantages__Disadvantages_

Formal, national level, quantitative, model-based projections

• Comprehensive

• Consistent

• Transparent

• Quantitative

• Data shortage

• Costly

• Not everything can be quantified

• May give a misleading impression of precision

In depth sectoral or occupational studies (using a variety of quantitative (model based) and qualitative methods)

Strong on sectoral specifics

• Partial

• Can be inconsistent across sectors

Surveys of employers or other groups, asking questions of fact and opinion about skills, skill deficiencies and skill gaps

Direct "user/customer" involvement

• Can be very subjective

• Inconsistent

• Can too easily focus on the margins (i.e.current vacancies) rather than skill needs within the whole workforce

• Focus groups, round tables

• Observations

• Delphi-style methods

• Scenario development, Foresight

• Holistic

• Less demanding data requirements

• Direct "user/customer" involvement

• Non-systematic

• Can be inconsistent

• Can be subjective

The education attainment levels are formalised in the well-known ISCED levels. These levels are mostly related to the length of schooling and the institutions that deliver the diploma. On the contrary, the European Qualification Framework will try to base the qualification process on the "learning outcomes", defined in terms of knowledge, skills and competences. It provides a clear definition of all these related concepts:

- "qualification" means a formal outcome of an assessment and validation process which is obtained when a competent body determines that an individual has achieved learning outcomes to given standards;

- "learning outcomes" means statements of what a learner knows, understands and is able to do on completion of a learning process, which are defined in terms of knowledge, skills and competence;

- "knowledge" means the outcome of the assimilation of information through learning. Knowledge is the body of facts, principles, theories and practices that is related to a field of work or study. In the context of the European Qualifications Framework, knowledge is described as theoretical and/or factual:

- "skills" means the ability to apply knowledge and use know-how to complete tasks and solve problems. In the context of the European Qualifications Framework, skills are described as cognitive (involving the use of logical, intuitive and creative thinking) or practical (involving manual dexterity and the use of methods, materials, tools and instruments);

- "competence" means the proven ability to use knowledge, skills and personal, social and/or methodological abilities, in work or study situations and in professional and personal development. In the context of the European Qualifications Framework, competence is described in terms of responsibility and autonomy.

All things considered, over 19.6 million additional jobs are expected to be created between 2006 and 2020 in the EU-27. However, the actual number of jobs created will depend on the global economic environment. The current financial crisis and its impact on the real economy make the pessimistic scenario more probable. The more pessimistic scenario projects the generation of fewer jobs in the service sector, but still growth. In this scenario, the employment decline of manufacturing will be stronger. The present crisis may accelerate the foreseen restructuring in these sectors. However, even in the pessimistic scenario, the manufacturing sector should still account for more than 33 million jobs in 2015: this sector would still correspond to an important part of jobs in some European regions. In addition, some regions would experience positive trends in manufacturing as a result of the transfer of jobs from older to newer Member States. Lastly, in some industries (for example engineering), demand will outstrip productivity gains and create new jobs. The primary sector and utilities are expected to decline significantly in all cases. [2, 3, 4]

The forecast has adopted a modular approach to exploring skill needs focusing on four key components (modules): The first key component is a multisectoral macroeconomic model, called E3ME Energy environment-economy model of Europe). Using the classical Leontief input-output tables, it considers the links between economic sectors. In addition, it takes into account the interactions between the economy, energy supply and demand, and environment (E3), as well as the contribution of research and development, and associated technological innovation, and the dynamics of growth. E3ME's parameters are estimated empirically, using historical time series data covering the period 1970-2004. This means that behavioural relationships in the forecast are determined by past trends. There may be cases where this is not appropriate, in particular in new Member States where data series are shorter (1993-2004) and cover a period of transition. To compensate partially for this E3ME assumes that in the long term there is convergence between the EU's new members and the previous EU-15 in terms of the key economic relationships and parameters embedded in the model. It also uses Eurostat population projections as an input. Based on Eurostat National Accounts (NA) estimates, this model provides consistent projections of employment levels by sector/industry. Of course, in addition to providing projections of sectoral employment, such models can be used for a wide variety of other purposes, including more general macroeconomic policy analysis. E3ME has been set up to explore alternative scenarios. This includes broad assessment of the sensitivity of outcomes to some key external drivers (such as the global economic demand). A baseline forecast, constructed from a set of accepted European Commission economic projections was developed as a benchmark for two alternative scenarios, one with a positive and one with a more negative outlook.

The second key component is a module which translates the employment projections from the multisectoral model into implications for the expansion demand for occupations. The third module, very similar to the second one, focuses on the implications for formal education attainments.

A key issue is the best data to be used to measure employment structure in Europe. Historically, most countries have invested considerable resources in developing data for their National Accounts (NA). In many respects estimates of employment on this basis are to be preferred as they are consistent with other key economic indicators such as output and productivity. More recently, greater emphasis has been placed on estimates of employment based on the European Labour Force Survey (LFS). These have the advantage of being broadly consistent across countries and providing a measure of employment structure by occupation and qualification that is not available from the NA based estimates. Therefore the data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) are used to generate the occupational and qualification estimates, but are constrained to match National Accounts based employment totals. The occupational and qualifications shares within sectors therefore reflect the patterns in the LFS data [2, 3, 4].

Ideally, the second and third module should relate occupational and qualifications structure to technology and work organisation, price (wage) and other economic factors. In practice, time is the main independent variable acting as a proxy for technological change and other factors. The fourth module estimates the 'replacement demand'. On the demand side of the labour market it is important to make the distinction between demand that results from future changes in employment levels - expansion demand - and the so-called replacement demand, influenced by retirement, mortality, inter-occupational, geographical mobility and migration. Obtaining robust estimates of migration flows is not straightforward, since available data are rarely adequate, but this module tries to estimate the impact of all types of mobility, including migration.

In combination, the four modules deliver a comprehensive, consistent, detailed picture of future skill needs and job openings across Europe. The latter are defined as the sum of expansion and replacement demand [2] (see Pattern 1).

 

Multisectoral macroeconomic model (E3ME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stocks and expansion demand by occupation (EDMOD)

->

Replacement demand by occupation/qualification (RDMOD)

Stocks and expansion demand by qualification (QMOD)

 

 

 

 

 

t

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Job openings by occupation

 

Job openings by qualification

Pattern 1. Expansion and replacement demand.

Different factors can influence the size of the workforce: demographic factors, participation rates, health issues, migration flows. In 2007 the active population in the EU, i.e. the total of those in employment and unemployment, was around 235 million on average. According to the latest population projections by Eurostat, by 2060 the working age population of the EU is projected to fall by almost 50 million even with continued net immigration similar to historical levels and by around 110 million without such immigration. Immigration in itself will not solve the demographic deficit, but it can cushion the impact of the demographic trends. Relying on immigration to replenish the population in Europe is a high-risk strategy as immigration is projected to decline by 2020. On its own, immigration is insufficient to compensate for the decline in birth rates throughout Europe. On the other hand, the potential contribution of immigration to EU economic performance is - and will most likely continue to be - significant. As recognised by the spring 2008 European Council and by the European Pact on Immigration and Asylum of October 2008, well managed economic immigration is one of the policies needed to help meeting the needs of the labour market and reducing present and future skills shortages [2, 3, 4].

These demographic trends are expected to have a major impact on the supply of labour in Europe. Overall participation rates (for the 15-64 age group) in the EU-25 are expected to increase over the coming decades and the overall employment rate is projected to rise from 65,5% in 2007 to 69% in 2020. The projected increase is mainly due to higher female employment rates, which will rise from 58,4% in 2007 to almost 63,4% by 2020. Even steeper is the projected increase in the employment rate of older workers, from 45% in 2007 to 54,5% in 2020. In many countries, the youth employment rate has been falling until 2004/2005. This trend is explained by the higher proportion of persons completing secondary education and higher enrolment in tertiary education. However, in 2006 and 2007, the youth employment rate has increased in a majority of countries and is expected to reach 40% in 2020 [5].

The total number of persons employed (15-64 years old) is projected to increase significantly up to 2019, but after 2019 the demographic effects of an ageing population will outweigh this effect. Three distinct periods can be identified. Between 2004 and 2012, both demographic and employment developments will support a growing labour supply. Between 2013 and 2019, rising employment rates will offset the stagnation and decline in the working-age population: during this period, the working-age population will start to decline as the

baby-boom generation enters retirement. The ageing effect will dominate as from 2020, and the number of persons employed will fall [8, 9,

10].

Reflections

Overall population projections and estimates of future labour supply provide robust trend data that can be compared with estimates of labour demand and the need for new skills. However, there are nevertheless some important challenges:

- Uncertainties over life expectancy.

Life expectancy projections are subject to uncertainty. Past projections from official sources have often underestimated the gains in life expectancy.

- Labour supply is sensitive to labour demand.

Employment rates, particularly female employment rates and rates among older and younger workers, markedly affect labour supply and associated activity rates. Employment rates are themselves sensitive to labour demand, the wage rates for different skill groups, and conditions affecting decisions to retire or otherwise become inactive.

- Estimating third-country immigration to the EU.

Compared to fertility and mortality, immigration flows are harder to predict and are more volatile and subject to changes in political and institutional factors. The data on immigration flows are sketchy and it is extremely difficult to project migration flows. The static snapshot of net immigration inflows on which the projections are based fails to capture the complexity of the situation, not least because gross flows (both inwards and outwards) are neglected. Moreover, immigration has a dynamic impact on the population of the host country, and account needs to be taken of factors such as the extent to which migrants return to their home country, family reunification, and whether the fertility and mortality patterns of migrants' offspring and subsequent generations converge to those of the host country. Migration flows are also uncertain due to the influence of a variety of push and pull factors in both host and home countries. Natural disasters, war and political instability play a role, but these are too uncertain to project. Relative income disparities and public policy towards migrants are the major determining factors of migration over the long run. Finally, approaches to modelling migration flows vary widely across official agencies throughout the EU, notwithstanding the progresses in the common EU immigration policy.

- Estimating intra-EU migration.

There has been a long tradition of intra-EU economic migration although the absolute numbers of workers involved have been low relative to the size of national labour markets. Enlargement has significantly affected these trends. The single market and efforts to encourage mobility may increase mobility and hence affect labour supply. However, anticipating the potential scale of such changes is problematic.

- Estimating intra-Member State migration flows.

Labour markets are to a large extent local and regional rather than national, and there have been and continue to be marked inter­regional and rural/urban (and urban/rural) migration movements within European countries. Data on such trends are poor. However, such trends have important consequences for effective levels of labour supply. Employers, dependent upon the local and regional labour supply, have a strong interest in anticipating such trends.

- Estimating the characteristics of labour supply.

While the characteristics of age, educational level, gender, and to a lesser extent origin of labour supply are relatively easy to forecast, some of the characteristics associated with likely success in the labour market are more difficult to identify, as formal occupational qualifications and experience become less relevant than generic competences that are more important for an individual's competitiveness in the labour market, and as career paths become more complex.

Conclusions Drawn

Several factors have influenced the trends and shifts in skills demand. The main factors driving these trends are: technological change; organisational change; globalisation and international trade. Climate change and environmental challenges will also have a major impact across the economy. The changing characteristics and upgrading of the workforce may also reinforce the trends. The pace of change may also be influenced by institutional factors in the labour market. The relative importance of these factors is the subject of research and debate. Each factor is considered in turn below.

Technological change

Technological change influences the demand for skills and workers with different levels of education. The so-called Skill-Biased Technological Change (SBTC) thesis is a common approach to explaining the shift in labour demand towards high-skilled workers in Europe. The basic idea is that new technologies that improve the effectiveness of the production process, for example information and communication technology (ICT), are 'skill-biased' and that technological change increases the demand for higher-educated workers. At the same time, less-educated workers become relatively less productive, and are less in demand, which reduces their wages or increases their likelihood of unemployment. There is considerable evidence that adopting ICT reduces the labour input for routine cognitive and manual tasks and increases the input for non-routine tasks that require higher skills. Studies (mostly for the US and the UK) have tried to relate shifts in skill structure in several industries to indicators such as computer use, R&D intensity or innovation counts. The findings tend to support the SBTC thesis by showing that demand shifts are stronger in industries making intensive use of ICT. Apart from ICT, biotechnology and nanotechnology are identified as likely to have a major impact on the economy and the labour market over the next decade [10, 11].

Organisational change

Technological change also influences the organisation of work, which affects the demand for different levels of skills. ICT has contributed to the shift from the so-called 'Taylorist organisation of labour', characterised by mass production and bureaucratic controls, to more flexible forms of work. Work organisation is now characterised by decentralised decision taking,

just-in-time operation, job rotation, teamwork and multitasking. The OECD has paraphrased this as 'high-performance work practices', emphasising that these new requirements lead to higher skill needs. This process is termed Skills Biased Organisational Change

(SBOC).

US data on the internal structure of firms that have adopted ICT show that the increase in demand for high-skilled workers can be attributed more to the requirements of new work organisation than to the introduction of the new technology itself. The organisational changes possible through ICT may change labour demand in several ways. Firms that adopt ICT need workers that can get along in self-managed teams and can complete a whole process that earlier was fragmented because of the lack of centralised databases. Moreover, non-cognitive skills such as dealing with suppliers and customers or influencing team-mates and colleagues have become more important.

The finding that skill changes are strongly driven by new ways of organising work is corroborated by European data. Data for France and Britain show that organizational changes such as de-layering, job rotation and shorter command chains prompt an increase in relative labour demand in favour of the skilled. Higher-skilled workers more easily cope with these challenges as they are able to communicate or can be trained for multitasking at a lower cost than unskilled or low-skilled workers. The studies indicate that organisational changes have come at the expense of the employment of clerks and have mainly favoured executives.

Endogenous skill-biased technological change

Technological development has not always led to an increase in the demand for high-skilled labour. To some extent, labour demand is a reflection of labour supply. Work needs to be organised in manner that best takes advantage of and complements the skills and education of the available workforce. A well-educated and highly skilled workforce will have the effect of encouraging and enabling the adoption of technologies and modification of work organization hat can increase productivity, which will in turn reinforce the demand for high skills in successful companies and industries. Upgrading the education of the workforce may thus itself be a factor leading to increased demand for

high skills. A large supply of skilled workers with relatively low wages could lead firms to introduce a technology their workforce can cope with. So, technology needs to be seen as a flexible parameter that firms can use to maximise their profits.

Research into technological change driven by skills supply is not widely available. A recent study in the United States compared PC adoption in different cities, finding that cities initially endowed with abundant and cheap skilled labour more aggressively adopted the new technology. Also, US evidence suggests that it is reasonable to assume that innovations are at least partly the result of the available workforce.

Across the developed world, empirical evidence shows a correlation between the available skills and the type of technological change. A large supply of general and transferable skills provides companies with a better capacity for radical innovation, while education and training systems offering sector-specific courses and curricula favour incremental innovation. It is argued that the US systems focusing on a more 'general' education do better in meeting the requirements of technological and organisational change. Europe, which has traditionally concentrated on 'vocational' systems, has seen less economic growth from rapid technological and organisational change.

Globalisation and international trade

The evolution of international trade and globalisation are other factors leading to increased demand for high-skilled workers in Europe and reduced demand for unskilled labour in developed countries. In recent years, trade between the industrialised countries and developing countries has risen. Emerging countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) now play a major role in the world economy. Within the next 40-50 years, the GDPs of the BRIC countries are expected to exceed those of the largest EU countries, the United States and Japan.

Developing and emerging countries have a larger unskilled labour supply than developed countries. Trade liberalisation enables this supply to be utilised. The developed world is experiencing a relative decline in the demand for unskilled labour as it imports cheaper low skill-intensive goods from the developing countries and concentrates on the production of high-skill-intensive goods.

However, trade and globalisation only partially explain the relative demand shift towards highskilled labour in Europe for several reasons. Firstly, trade flows with low-wage developing countries are not large enough to explain the shift in labour demand within the developed countries. Secondly, the industries that have experienced the biggest increase in trade with developing and emerging countries are not those that have seen the largest shifts in labour market demand towards high-skilled workers. Skill upgrading is also found in non-trading sectors like the retail trade, suggesting that globalisation and trade cannot by any means fully explain these trends. Finally, work specialisation among developed and developing countries is evolving very quickly. Skill upgrading is also taking place in developing and emerging countries, and these countries are now competent and competitive in knowledge-intensive sectors. The import of low-skill intensive goods has remained rather stable whereas the import of medium/high-skill intensive goods from low/medium income countries has substantially increased over the last 10 years. In addition, international trade in services should be also taken into account: according to statistics on off-shoring, most of the jobs effectively transferred abroad from EU Member States are in manufacturing or production - 51.5% -, but a significant proportion is in other areas of activity such as services. The increasing international trade in services is likely to develop over the next 10 years and to influence the EU labour market and skills requirements [12].

Labour market institutions

Labour market institutions are often cited as an explanatory factor for the relative shifts in labour demand. Indeed, there is an interesting association between labour market institutions and new forms of work organisation: countries with relatively restrictive labour market institutions and collective regulation (for example Germany but also the Scandinavian countries) are predominantly characterised by work forms that require high skills such as problem solving and, especially, worker autonomy. In countries with more flexible labour markets (for example the UK and Ireland), however, work organisation takes greater advantage of the relative cheapness of less skilled labour. Other things being equal, the reduced wages for the low-skilled should raise the demand for them. This explanation is mostly cited with respect to the US and UK labour markets, as they have seen a reduction in the role of labour market institutions. In particular, minimum wages fell in the US during the 1980s and unionisation declined sharply in both countries. However, there is still debate among researchers as to how the evolution of labour market institutions has accounted for the shifts in labour and skills demand and wages [1].

Climate change and environmental challenges

Lastly, efforts to mitigate and tackle climate change and environmental degradation (pollution of water, land and air) can create a new 'green economy', with millions of new jobs across the world. The market for environmental products and services is projected to double. The shift to a low-carbon economy could benefit Europe, which already has a leading position in some of the technology required for renewable energy, for example. Environmental concerns not only prompt the growth of new green sectors, however. They also require the development of new competences in more traditional sectors (agriculture, transport, buildings). Consequently, increasing environmental concerns can have an impact on all sectors of the economy and require not only the development of education and training programmes for emerging new professions, but also new skills to be taught as part of changing job profiles within existing professions.

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B I Las - The public administration of exogenous and endogenous risks of regional development in post-crisis period