V P Kharchenko, F Shmelova - Methodology for analysis of decision making - страница 1

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ISSN 1813-1166. Proceedings of NAU. 2011. №3

UDC 656.7.086(45)

1Volodymyr P. Kharchenko, Prof. 2Tetyana F. Shmelova, Assoc. Prof. 3Yuliya V. Sikirda, Assoc. Prof.

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING

IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

1National Aviation University E-mail: kharch@nau.edu.ua

2,3State Flight Academy of Ukraine 2'3E-mail: Shmelova@ukr.net

Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodology of analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individual-psychological factors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of a human-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On the basis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air Navigation System's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified. The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System using stochastic networks have been developed.

Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individual-psychological factors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

Statement of purpose

Currently, one of the main strategic problems of mankind on the path to sustainable development is the safety and stability of technogeneous production. The technogeneous production is a complex system that contains interrelated technical, economic and social objects. It has a multilevel hierarchical structure and a high level of risk [1]. Recent results show that there are frequent and common emergency such as disasters, accidents, crashes in hydraulic engineering, chemical and military industries, gas and oil pipelines, nuclear power plants and transport [2; 3; 4].

Aviation systems with its complex interrelation between a man and technologies have been evolved towards complex socio-technical systems. The interfaces between people and the technologies that comprise these systems are highly interactive, interdependent and affected by similar environmental events. The socio-technical systems also tend to have two common features: high technologies and high risk activities. As such, they require much less direct operation due to the fact that the technology replaces the human operator. On the other hand they require much more remote operator's supervision due to the modern tendency to supervise the technology by distance. The systems' work is not transparent due to increased difficulty to know exactly what technology is being used. The systems are also highly hazardous and of high-risk, and have greater potential for catastrophic consequences (i.e. accidents) [5].

Statistical data show that human errors account for up to 80% of all causes of aviation accidents [6]. Traditional actions like improving professional training, keeping work discipline and others may not be effective. Normally aviation personnel are trained professionally in a proper manner [7]. The causes of most aviation accidents are often connected with the psychology of the crew members which require appropriate consideration.

Modern approaches to control some factors (psycho-physiological, behavioural, ergonomic, professional, etc.) do not take into account the functional state of a human-operator (H-O) under conditions of dynamic changes of external and internal factors [6]. The ambient conditions determine the reaction of H-O, and this reaction changes the environmental conditions accordingly. One of possible approaches to solve these problems may be through formalization and mathematical description based on a system analysis of Air Navigation System (ANS) H-O's actions as a complex socio-technical system.

Review of research results

Ensuring safety in complex socio-technical systems like the aviation system is a key task to prevent threats at the operational level such as breakage of technical equipment or operating personnel's error [4].

© Volodymyr P. Kharchenko, Tetyana F. Shmelova, Yuliya V. Sikirda, 2011

Taking into account the influence of individual-psychological, physiological and socio-psychological factors of the environment on human-operator of ANS [8] allows us to predict his actions in specific flight situations. Using the theory of reflection the "large-scale" results which follow individual actions of a man may be assumed [9].

For the formalization of the behaviour of ANS H-O in flight situations the graphic models relationships between a cause and an impact - graphs, trees, events and functional networks of stochastic structures - might be useful [10]. To study the impact of decision making by H-O during the flight situations development we have applied the stochastic network type GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique). GERT allows to model increase of flight situation complication as well as its decrease and/or simplification. GERT is an alternative probabilistic method of network planning applicable in the case when these actions can only start after completion of a prior action including cycles and loops [10].

Purpose of work

The purposes of the article are:

- to develop a methodology for analysis of decision-making by H-O ANS;

- to research and formalize the factors that influence decision-making by H-O ANS as a complex socio-technical system;

- to develop the reflexive model of bipolar choice of Н-O ANS in flight situations;

- to create stochastic network analysis of flight situations.

Methodology for analysis of decision-making by human-operator of Air Navigation System

The analysis of decision making by H-O ANS in non standard flight situations was based on the methodology developed by us and presented in the tab. 1.

As a result of previous studies we have identified factors that influence the decision-making H-O ANS: professional factors (knowledge, skills, abilities, experience) and non-professional factors (individual-psychological, psycho-physiological, socio-psychological factors). The influence of individual-psychological factors on professional activities H-O (civil pilots and controllers) has been studied [8].

The respondents were military pilots and navigators   of   different   ages   with different professional experience. We have identified the importance of their individual-psychological qualities (tab. 2, fig. 1, 2) and the influence of socio-psychosocial factors on decision making in their professional activity (tab. 3, fig. 3).

For analyzing the individual-psychological factors modified coefficients were used. They represented the multiplication of weight coefficients of factors and quantitative indicators which determine qualitative characteristics of flight situation's risk levels depending on their complexity [11].

By comparing the weight value the preferences system of non-professional factors for military aviation specialists have been defined.

Investigation of the individual-psychological and socio-psychological factors influence on professional activities of H-O ANS made it possible to obtain information about such structural components of aviation specialist's personality as behavioural motives, values and priorities, hierarchy and development of these dynamic categories at the stages of H-O decision-making: perception of information, identification of the situation, making decisions, undertaking actions.

Reflexive model of bipolar choice

of human operator of the Air Navigation

System in flight situations

With bipolar reflexive behavioural model of H-O in extreme situations [9] we have received W-functions of a positive and a negative choice. The model represents the subject (H-O) located before the bipolar choice of one of the alternatives: A (positive pole) and B (negative pole).

The choice of H-O ANS is described by the function (1):

X = f (x^ ^ ^

where Х - is probability that H-O is ready to choose a positive pole A in the reality;

x1 - is a pressure of the environment on H-O toward positive alternative at the moment of choice, х1є [0, 1];

x2 - is a pressure of the previous experience of H toward positive alternative at the moment of choice, х2є [0, 1];

х3 - is a pressure of the intention of H toward positive alternative in moment ofthe choice, х3є [0, 1].

An alternative solution is the choice of H-O which is determined by H-O decision-making system in a risk (stochastic uncertainty).

Table 1. The methods of analysis of H-O ANS decision-making in flight emergencies (FE)

Number

Phase of analysis

Result

1

Preliminary analysis of the problem

The choice of FE for the analysis - FE selected for analysis (FE SfA). Statistical analysis of aviation accidents, study of selection FE. Analysis of literature and forming a sample of 5-7 FE SfA

2

Technology of work of H-O (controller, pilot) in FE

Algorithm of aircraft crew's actions in FE SfA (according to aircraft type in the sample that formed).

Algorithm of controller's actions in FE SfA.

Flowchart of algorithm of aircraft crew's actions in FE SfA.

Flowchart of algorithm of controller's actions in FE SfA

3

Determination of model's parameters

Determination of time ti (ti'), required for the performance of i-procedure according to the algorithm of aircraft crew's actions in FE SfA by the experimental (expert) method. Determination of time tj (tj'), required for the performance of i-procedure according to the algorithm of controller's actions in FE SfA by the experimental (expert) method. Comparative analysis of experimental (ti, ti') and expert data (tj, tj')

4

Development of graphic analytical models (GAM)

GAM of EF.

GAM of H-O decision-making in FE. GAM of flight situations

4.1

Development of deterministic models of H-O decision-making in FE

Network planning of aircraft crew's (AC) actions in FE SfA:

1. Structural time-table of AC actions in FE SfA.

2. Network graph of AC actions in FE SfA.

3. Critical time of AC actions FE SfA.

4. Critical path of AC actions in FE SfA.

5. Stages of H-O decision-making to parry FE SfA

 

 

Network planning of controller's actions in FE SfA:

1. Structural time-table of controller's actions in FE SfA.

2. Network graph of controller's actions in FE SfA.

3. Critical time of controller's actions FE SfA.

4. Critical path of controller's actions in FE SfA.

5. Stages of H-O decision-making to parry FE SfA

4.2

Development of stochastic models of H-O decision-making in FE

1. Structural analysis of FE SfA development.

2. Analysis of models' uncertainty.

3. Analysis of the effects of flight situations development.

4. Analysis of H-O decision-making using decision trees.

5. Analysis of H-O decision-making using stochastic networks.

6. Finding a minimal risk of flight situations development

4.3

Development of reflexive models of bipolar choice of H-O decision-making in FE

1. System analysis and formalization of the factors that affect H-O decision-making (individual-psychological, psycho-physiological, socio-psychological) during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic:

- preferences models of H-O individual-psychological factors significance;

- models of psycho-physiological factors;

- preferences models in impact of socio-psychological factors on H-O.

2. Determination of expected risks of H-O decision-making on the basis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice

Table 2. The significance of individual-psychological factors of military navigators and pilots in the conditions of flight situations development

 

 

Modified coefficients of factors

 

Individual-

Normal

Complicated

Difficult

Emergency

Catastrophic

Number

psychological

situation

situation

situation

situation

situation

 

factors

Navi-

Pilot

Navi-

Pilot

Navi-

Pilot

Navi-

Pilot

Navi-

Pilot

 

 

gator

 

gator

 

gator

 

gator

 

gator

 

1

Temperament

0,2

1,1

0,9

3,3

2

6,5

5,6

13,6

4

17

2

Attention

1,3

1,6

4,8

4,8

8

8

12,8

8,8

13

11

3

Perception

0,9

0,7

3

2,7

6,5

4,5

10,4

13,6

16

17

4

Thinking

1,1

0,4

3

2,1

5,5

3,5

7,2

5,6

9

7

5

Imagination

0,7

0,9

0,9

1,2

1

2

1,6

2,4

2

3

6

Nature

0,4

0,2

2,1

0,6

3,5

1

3,2

1,6

7

2

7

Intention

1,8

1,3

5,4

3,9

9

5,5

14,4

7,2

18

9

8

Health

1,6

1,9

3,9

5,7

4,5

9,5

8,8

13,6

11

17

9

Experience

2

1,9

6

5,7

10

9,5

16

13,6

20

17

Risk level, units

10

10

30

30

50

50

80

80

100

100

и

О

■її

о

О О

о

25 20

Ц 15 10

 

 

^-,\

 

 

 

ЩС»^' _____£.\чЧч_^

 

і              і     ^      і              і —

1             2             3             4 5

6             7             8 9

Factors

Normal situation -• • • Emergency situation

Complicated situation • • Difficult situation

     Catastrophic situation

Fig. 1. The significance of individual-psychological factors of military navigators in the conditions of flight situations development:

1 - temperament;

2 - attention;

3 - perception

4 - thinking;

5 - imagination;

6 - nature;

7 - intention;

8 - health;

9 - experience

20 18 16 14 12 10

8 6 4 2 0

^^^Д^^. . _^^^^^^_•   — -

9

Factors

— •— - Normal situation

— •• - Emergency situation t Complicated situation A- Difficult situation t— Catastrophic situation

Fig. 2. The significance of individual-psychological factors of military pilots in the conditions of flight situations development:

1 -

2

3 -

4 -

5 -

6 -

7 -

8 -

9 -

temperament; attention; perception thinking; imagination; nature; intention;

health;

experience

Table 3. The preferences system of military pilots and navigators

 

 

Pilot

Navigator

Number

Socio-psychological factors

Average

Weight

Rank

Average

Weight

Rank

 

 

of factor

of factor

of factor

of factor

of factor

of factor

1

Moral factors

4,67

0,07

5

4,75

0,07

5

2

Economic factors

2,00

0,27

2

2,20

0,27

2

3

Social factors

1,00

0,33

1

1,60

0,33

1

4

Political factors

4,33

0,13

4

4,20

0,13

4

5

Legal factors

3,00

0,20

3

2,30

0,20

3

Fig. 3. The influence of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of military pilots and navigators

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

The optimal solution is found by the criterion of an expected value with the principle of risk minimizing:

AoPt = minKj,

where RiJ - is expected risk for solution AiJ, which is determined by formula:

Rj = Zp,,u, i = 1 n, j =1,m,

j=1

(f iph , f exp ) f ipa fipw f ipt f ipi       fipp f ipth f ipn

(f iph , f exp ) (fipt, fipp ) fipa f ipw      fipth f ipi fipn

where fiph - is health; fipexp - is experience; fipa - is attention;

where pJJ - is probability of J-factor influence during

m

i-alternative solution choice, z p j = 1;

j=1

uiJ  -  is  a  loss  associated  with choosing i-alternative solution during J-factor influence.

The alternative solution B is the choice of H-O which is determined by H-O preferences system under which any form of arrangement of F-set is understood, i.e., removing the uncertainty of choice of some element f*e F on the basis of selection of a rule K. A selection of a rule K shows the concept of a rational behaviour of individual у and his preferences system p in a particular situation of choice: {g, p j ® K .

The H-O ANS preferences system is influenced by professional F p and non-professional Fnp factors:

Fp ={Fed, F exp j;

F np = \Fip , F pf , Fsp ^

where F ed - is knowledge, skills and abilities acquired by H-O during training;

Fexp   - is knowledge,  skills and abilities, acquired by H-O during professional activity;

F ip      {fipt, f ipa , f ipp , f ipth , f ipi, fipn , fipw , f iph , f exp j

- is a set of H-O individual-psychological factors (temperament, attention, perception, thinking, imagination, nature, intention, health, experience);

F pf - is a set of H-O psycho-physiological factors (features of the nervous system, emotional type, sociotype);

F sp {f spm , f spe , f sps , f spp , f spl j

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