V Kharchenko, T Shmelova, Y Sikirda - Monitoring and management aerospace systems - страница 1

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UDC 656.7.086(45)

1Volodymyr Kharchenko, Prof. 2Tetyana Shmelova, Assoc. Prof. 3Yuliya Sikirda, Assoc. Prof.


1National Aviation University 2'3Kirovograd Flight Academy of the National Aviation University 1E-mail: kharch@nau.edu.ua 2E-mail: Shmelova@ukr.net 3E-mail: SikirdaYuliya@yandex.ru

Abstract. The Air Navigation System is presented as a complex socio-technical system. The influence on decision-making by Air Navigation System's human-operator of the professional factors as well as the factors of non-professional nature has been defined. Logic determined and stochastic models of decision-making by the Air Navigation System's human-operator in flight emergencies have been developed. The scenarios of developing a flight situation in case of selecting either the positive or negative pole in accordance with the reflexive theory have been obtained. The informational support system of the operator in the unusual situations on the basis of Neural Network model of evaluating the efficiency of the potential alternative of flight completion has been built.

Keywords: informational support, logic determined models, neuronetwork model, reflexive theory, socio-technical system, stochastic models.


Air Navigation System (ANS) in conformity to the principles of functioning may be referred to socio-technical systems within which close co-operation between human and technological components occurs [1]. The distinguishing feature of the socio-technical systems is availability of the hazardous kinds of activity as well as usage of the high level technologies in production. Since operations in socio-technical systems generally involve high-risk / high-hazard activities, the consequences of safety breakdowns are often catastrophic in terms of loss of life and property [1]. The more a Human-Operator (H-O) is trying to control a production process being aided by high level technologies, especially in case of distant operation, the more non-transparent becomes the result of the operation of a system, which is accompanied by a high degree risk of causing catastrophic outcomes [2].

Large-scale, high- technology systems such as nuclear power generation and aviation have been called socio-technical systems because they require complex interactions between their human and technological components [1]. Most investigations were conducted with a view to provision of safety in nuclear power production [3; 4]. In the ANS provision of safety is rather actual with the aim of prevention threats on the operational level, for example in the event of technical equipment damage or maintenance personnel faults [5]. The provision of flight safety in the ANS by means of high level technological processes depends primarily on reliability of a H-O as well as his timely professional decisions.

Review of research results

Statistical data show that human errors account for up 80 % of all causes of aviation accidents [6]. The existing approaches to checking separate aspects (psycho-physiological, behavioural, ergonomic, professional, etc.) do not give the proper consideration to the functional state of H-O in the conditions of the dynamic change of external and internal factors [7].

© Kharchenko Volodymyr, Shmelova Tetyana, Sikirda Yuliya, 2012

The environmental conditions determine the reaction of a H-O, while the reaction of the latter, in its turn, changes the environmental conditions themselves. Representation of the ANS in the form of a socio-technical system first of all makes possible to take into account the influence of social, cultural environment of people who make decisions. Culture surrounds people and affects their values, convictions and behavior, which they share along with other members of different social groups. Culture serves to bind us together as members of groups and to provide clues as to how to behave in both normal and unusual situations. The psychologist Hofstede suggests that culture is a "collective programming of the mind" [1]. Thus fatal mistakes can be committed by normal, healthy, highly motivated and well equipped personnel [1; 8]. Russian scientists have used lately the term "departure of conscience" when they analyze the causes of aviation events conditioned by the insufficient development of the appropriate cultural values in a person that makes decisions [6].

One of the possible approaches to the solution of these problems is formalization and mathematical presentation of the ANS operators' activities in the form of a complex socio-technical systems on the base of the systemic analysis. Taking into account in the act of Decision-Making (DM) by a H-O within ANS, besides the separate professional factors (knowledge, habits, skills, experience) also the factors of non-professional nature (individual psychological, psycho-physiological and socio-psychological) [9; 10; 11] enables to predict the H-O's actions on the basis of modelling the foresighting "large-scale" outcomes of individual actions [1] with the aid of the reflexive theory [12].

The systemic approach requires examination of all interrelated different components of the navigation system acknowledging the fact that changes in one sphere may affect the other (probably unpredicted) sphere [1; 2].

For the formalization of the behavioural activity of H-O ANS in flight situations those models seem to be suitable which present the process of appearance of separate preconditions and their development into the causal chain of events in the form of proper diagrams of causal-consequential relations.

Nowadays the most widely spread are the diagrams in the form of different graphs (or current states and transitions), trees of events as well as functional networks of stochastic structure [13-16].

Purpose of work

The purposes of the article are:

- decomposition of the process of DM by H-O ANS, systemic analysis and formalization of the influence of the factors on the DM within ANS treated as complex socio-technical system;

- working-out of models DM by H-O in socio-technical ANS (DM under Certainty, DM under Risk and DM under Uncertainty, Neural Network models);

- working-out of a computer program for optimization of the choice of the Decision alternative of a flight completion for an Aircraft (AC) in unusual situations.

Decomposition of the process DM by H-O ANS and the systemic analysis of factors

In order to take into account the complex of the factors that influences H-O of the ANS in the expected and unexpected conditions of operation of an AC a model of the DM for H-O has been worked out (fig. 1).

As a result of the previous studies the factors which affect the DM by a H-O ANS have been determined, namely: level of knowledge, skills, abilities, preceding experience as well as the factors of non-professional nature (psycho-physiological, individual-psychological, social-psychological

factors) [11].

The systemic analysis which has been carried out as well as the formalization of the factors which affect DM by H-O (individual-psychological, psycho-physiological and social-psychological) in the conditions of the progress of a flight situation from normal to catastrophic to obtain [11]:

- the models of preferences by a H-O under the influence of social-psychological factors;

- the models of preferences by a H-O depending on the significance of individual-psychological factors in the conditions of development flight situations from normal to catastrophic ones;

- the models of diagnostics of psycho-physiological factors at the score of monitoring the emotional state of H-O.


The professional factors j    (J) (Fpf) (Fp) j

The non-professional factors



The flight stages

і (GO @

Gs1 )( Gs2 ) i Gs33 ]

The conditions of operation    The type of situation

The identification of situation

Ge - obtained experience;

Yg - vector of predicted н-0's actions;

а - selection in the direction of

positive pole A;

в - selection in the direction of

negative pole B;

ав - mixed selection

exp      knowledge,   skills and

Fed - knowledge, skills and abilities, acquired operator during training; F

abilities,  acquired  н-0 during professional activity; Fip   - individual-psychological н-0's qualities;

Fpf - psycho-physiological н-0's qualities;

Fsp - social-psychological н-0's qualities

Gp1 - takeoff; Gp2 - climb-out; Gp3 - level flight; Gp4 - descent;

Gp5 - landing;

Gc1 - expected conditions of the ас operation;

Gc2 - unexpected conditions of the ас operation; Gs1 - normal situation; Gs2 - complicated situation; Gs3 - difficult situation; Gs4 - emergency situation; Gs5 - catastrophic situation

j     (gos) (Goh) (Got) (Gov) (g^

The channel of perception the information Perception the information

Gos - optic channel; Goh - auditory channel; Got - tactile channel; Gov - verbal channel; Goe - preceding experience

Fig. 1. The model of DM by H-O ANS

The analysis of social-physiological factors conducted by the authors allowed to make a conclusion that the activities of pilots are influenced by the own image, the image of corporation as well as by interests of a family.

At the same time respondents - air traffic controllers pay special attention to interests of their families, their own economical status and professional promotion. The analysis of priorities when a pilot and dispatcher are to make a decision together, determined the following model of advantages: social and economic priorities of a person, political views and legal norms of a person, spiritual and cultural orientations of a person as to the influence of individual-psychological factors the most significant of them are health and experience. In the conditions when a flight situation develops in the direction to a catastrophic occurrence, then the temperament and ability to receive information become more significant factors [10; 11]. The research into the influence of individual-psychological and social-psychological factors on the professional activity of H-O ANS allowed to obtain data on such structural components of a personality of an aviation specialist, such as motives or behaviour, values and priorities, hierarchy and development of these dynamic categories on the stages of DM by H-O.

Modelling of the DM by H-O ANS

under Certainty, Risk and Uncertainty

The investigation into the processes of modelling the DM by air navigation specialists in the normal and unusual situations enabled to build the following models.

1. Decision Making by H-O in Flight Emergencies (FE) under Certainty. The network analysis of the actions of an AC crew and an air traffic controller in flight emergencies with the aid of the network planning methods gave a chance to obtain [13]:

- structural-hourly table of the actions taken by H-O (controller, pilot) in FE;

- the network graph of taking the actions by a H-O (controller, pilot) in the FE;

- the critical time of taking the actions by a H-O (controller, pilot) in the FE;

- the determined models for a H-O (controller) are presented in tab. 1 and fig. 2, which were obtained in accordance with the adopted technologies of controller's work in the FE [14; 15].

The obtained critical time for performing the operations by a controller in the FE namely: engine failure on takeoff, depressurization of flying vehicle, hydraulic system faults, failure of the electric power supply system, etc. as well as the critical time of the crew actions in case of an engine failure on takeoff and approach to land in the adverse meteorological conditions has been obtained.

2. Decision Making by H-O in FE under Risk. The structural analysis of developing FE and DM by AC crew and air traffic controller in FE with the aid of decision tree enabled to obtain such results:

- graphical-analytical models of FE development and DM by a H-O (controller, pilot) in

FE [9; 17];

- stochastic models type GERT network (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique), decision trees and Markov chains [10; 11; 16];

- reflexive models of bipolar choice in FE under the influence of external environment, previous experience and intentional choice by H-O.

With the aid of the bipolar reflexive model of the behavioral activity of H-O in the extreme situations [12] W-functions of the positive and negative choice have been obtained. The model represents the subject (H-O) who is on the verge of choosing one of the alternatives: A (positive pole) and B (negative pole).

The choice H-O ANS is described by the function:

X = f (x1, x3),

where X is a probability with which the H-O is ready to choose the positive pole A in the reality;

x1 is a pressure of the external environment on the H-O in the direction of the positive alternative at the moment of the choice:

х1Є [0, 1];

x2 is a pressure of the previous H-O's experience in the direction of the positive alternative at the moment of the choice:

х2Є [0, 1];

х3 is an intentional choice (intention) of H-O in the direction of the positive alternative at the moment of the choice:

х3Є [0, 1].

Table 1. Generalized structural-hourly table of the technology of the air traffic controller work in FE

Contents of the work

Designation of the work

Set of the operations

Support on the work

Time of the performing the work

Receiving the information from the AC crew about the FE


(а1ъ a1n}


{tn, t12, tm}

Confirmation of receiving the information to the AC crew


{a2b          —, a1n}


{t21, t22, —, t2n}

Transmission of the information to the appropriate services


{a3b          —, a3n}

А1 П А2

{t31, t32, —, t3n}

Receiving the decision of AC commander


{a4b          —, a4n}

А1 U А2 U А3

{t41, t42, —, t4n}

Provision of the conditions for the safe flight completion


{a5b a52, —, a5n}

А1 П А2 П А3 П А4

{t51, t52, t5n}

Reception of the information from the AC crew about the result of landing


{a6b a62, —, a6n}

А1 П А2 П А3 П А4 П А5

{t61, t62, —, t6n}


Fig. 2. The network graph of carrying out the actions by an air traffic controller in the ANS: А1-А6 - operations which are carried out by the controller in accordance with approved technology; {Mij} - the set of the scenarios of the development of flight situations in compliance with stochastic model

The expected risks RA, RB of making a decision in the ANS under the influence of the external environment x1, the previous H-O's experience x2 and the intentional choice of a H-O x3 have been obtained. The expected risk in the process of DM of a H-O is equal:

f Ra = min [rv }

Rdm = ] Rb = її,P}

rab  = {x ( X1, x 2, X3), Y, p}

where RA is an expected risk of the DM for a H-O with taking into account the criterion of the expected value minimization;

Rij is an expected risk for making Ащ-decision;

RB is an expected risk of the DM for a H-O with taking into account his model of preferences;

Y is a concept of a rational individual's behaviour;

p is a system of a individual's preferences in a concrete situation of the choice;

is a mixed choice made by a H-O. The H-O ANS preferences system is influenced

by professional factors [11]:


F and non-professional F


{F ed , F exp }; F np = \Fip , F pf , Fsp }

where F ed are knowledge, skills and abilities, acquired H-O during training;



are knowledge, skills and abilities, acquired

H-O during professional activity;

Fip     {fipt, fipa, fipp, fipth, fipim, fipn, fipin, fiph, fexp }

is a set of individual-psychological qualities of a H-O (temperament, attention, perception, thinking, imagination, nature, intention, health, experience);

F pf is a set of psycho-physiological qualities of a H-O (features of the nervous system, emotional type, sociotype);

Fsp = {fspm , fspe , fsps , fspp , fspl }    is    a    set of

socio-psychological qualities of a H-O (moral, economic, social, political, legal).

The computation of one of the scenarios of the flight situation development is presented in fig. 3 (for example - approach performed in bad weather conditions [10; 11]).

The results of the computation of the expected risks in the course of the transition between flight situations and the criterion of the expected value by means of the dynamic programming method are presented in tab. 2.

The example of the computation of the expected risks in the course of the transition between flight situations is presented in fig. 4.

The selection in the direction of the negative pole in compliance with the S1-2-3-4B scenario leads to the maximum expected risk R=1028 conventional units (c.u.). The choice in the direction of the positive pole when the FE occurs at the first stage of DM by H-O ANS (for example, a flight to a reserve aerodrome in the difficult meteorological conditions) has a risk which is 60,5 times lesser: R=17 c.u.

Table 2. The results of computation of the scenarios of flight situations development

Scenarios, S

Probabilities, p

Consequences, U

Expected risks, R, c.u.









































0,7w 60

В у /


А \

В *0<^


'28 /

0,7/12    А " '


,,7/12 АЛГУІ^

0,7г 26



4^1 ©--.0


0,3* 59 0,7^ 58



56 55


53 52

51 50

49 48


46 45 44 43 42

Fig. 3. The example of the computation of one of the scenarios of flight situation development: А, В - selection in the direction of positive or negative pole respectively;

G1, G2, G3, G4, G5 - normal, complicated, difficult, emergency, catastrophic situations respectivel














Fig. 4. Markov Chains of the development of flight situations:

G1 ,G2, G3, G4 ,G5 - normal, complicated, difficult, emergency, catastrophic situations respectively; Rij - value of risk during transition between flight situations

3. Decision Making by H-O in FE under Uncertainty. The analysis of FE developing and DM of an AC crew and air traffic controller has been made with the aid of Minimax, Laplace, Savage and Hurwicz criterions which enabled to obtain the DM by H-O models in FE under uncertainty.

The matrix of the possible results of the H-O's DM in the ANS in the FE are presented in tab. 3. The consequences of the flight situation development uij have been obtained in conformity to the reflexive theory.

It is advisable to employ the models of the development of flight situations as components of the DM Support System which enables a H-O ANS to evaluate numerically the possible versions of FE developing and choose timely the strategy of behaviour with the minimum level of the potential loss in the conditions of the insufficient and uncertain available information.

Computer program for the optimization of choice of an alternative variant

The Neural Network model of evaluating the efficiency of the potential alternative of flight completion on the basis of the two-layer perceptron developed by us (fig. 5) differs from the used ones because it enables to define with a high degree of precision the amount of the possible loss due to the complex taking into account of the influences of various separate factors differing from the point of view of their significance which characterize the potential place for making a forced landing.

The entry parameters of the model in the form of the Artificial Neural Network (ANW) are factors which characterize the potential alternative of the flight completion (tab. 4).

Every entry parameter has a binary vector corresponding to it and reflecting the availability (1) or absence (0) of a certain factor.

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